In striking a three-year (1990-92) balance for transforming the economies of East-Central Europe, the most positive element we notice at first glance is the outstanding performance of the foreign-trade sector, documented by international data. The geographical shift of trade occurred simultaneously with a liberalization that has been unmatched in its swiftness and a spectacular growth in market share, while forecasts predicting a severe trade disequilibrium have been proven wrong. This study, comparing primarily Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland, examines the role of the global economic environment in effecting external adjustment. It discusses the geographical and structural factors behind the broadening of exports, as well as the benefits derived from more favorable trade-policy conditions and the influx of foreign capital. It emphasizes that economic modernization demands a stable external trade environment free of marketing obstacles, a sizable net influx of resources, and significant economic growth. In conclusion, the author analyzes prospects for maintaining present export levels, points to the need for changing economic policies, and emphasizes the responsibility of major OECD partners (especially the EC) in developing export-based economic strategies of modernization.
