IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN GREECE

A stochastic space-time model is used at four locations in Greece for estimating the effect of global climate change on daily temperature and precipitation. The approach is based on a semi-empirical downscaling of simulated daily atmospheric Circulation Patterns (CP) of General Circulation Models (GCM). Historical data and a 10-year outputs of the Max Planck Institute GCM for the 1 x CO2 and 2 x CO2 cases are used. Nine CP types for the winter and summer half years are obtained to characteriz;e large-scale climatic forcing in Greece. Local temperature and precipitation appear to be highly dependent on CP types. The space-time response of daily temperature to global climate change is slightly variable in Greece. In general, a warmer climate will imply nearly 3 degrees C increase in fall and in winter. The variability within the month will not change considerably. A slight but statistically significant increase of precipitation is obtained at one location and an insignificant increase is found at the other three locations.