AVAILABILITY OF PHYSICIANS IN CHILE AND ITS 10 YEARS PROJECTION

The availability of active physicians in Chile and its 5 and 10 years projections were studied. The number of inhabitants was estimated using the 1992 National Population Census and the number of physicians, using the 1980 records of the Chilean College of Physicians (year in which enrollment was mandatory for all physicians). A 1.6% annual population growth rate and a 5% physician mortality rate was applied (slightly lower that the general population mortality rate). The annual retirement from professional practice was estimated in 0.5% and physicians over 70 years old were considered retired According to these figures. in 1993 the population is 13,816,990 and there are 14.400 active physicians, a physician/inhabitant relationship of 1:960 (in 1980 it was 1:1,407) The estimated number agrees with that of the 1992 National Population Census and the 1993 income tax declarations. According to proyections, in 1998 Chile will have 14,958,292 inhabitants, 16,770 physicians and an inhabitant/physician relationship of 1:921. The figures for year 2003 will be 16,193,867; 18,597 and 1:871 respectively. On the other hand, the study reveals a reduction in the number of admissions to medical schools and of graduated physicians and a reduction in the annual physician population growth rate from 5 to 2% (slightly higher than the general population growth rate). Depending on the economic growth estimations and the needs for medical attention for the next decade, the admission shares for medical schools should be revisited.