EXCHANGE-RATE REGIMES AND UNCERTAINTY

This paper examines the change in exchange rate uncertainty between the Bretton Woods and floating exchange rate periods. We estimate both the unconditional variance and the conditional variance of the DM/dollar exchange rate under each exchange rate regime. The former is estimated on the basis of the coefficient of variation and the latter on the basis of a GARCH model. Our GARCH results show that the unconditional variance greatly understates the change in exchange rate uncertainty that resulted from the switch to a flexible exchange rate regime. © 1995 Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel.