CURRENT TRENDS IN SOUTH-AFRICA SECURITY ESTABLISHMENT

This article assesses three security trends in a transitional South Africa: the role of the police, the military's relation to state power, and what has not happened. Budgetary allocations to and the size of the South African Police have been vastly increased and the SAP-command structure has been regionalized. Although the military's confidence remains high, its grip on state power has been weakened. That the causes of these trends cut back to at least the last 10 years and that these trends now coincide with a new political will, has convinced many South Africans that minority rule will end soon. Yet civilian leadership has failed to act fully on evidence of scandalous behavior by members and units of the security establishment. Although it could be argued that this failure is explained by the fear that the transition to majority rule will be ruined at the last moment, it does little to strengthen the conditions of democracy in the long run.