PREDICTING CRIME RATES, FEAR AND DISORDER BASED ON AREA INFORMATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2000 BRITISH CRIME SURVEY

This study discusses methods for predicting local crime rates, measures of fear of crime and measures of disorder that are based on regression models which make use of local census variables and regional dummies. The crime types for which predictions are made are personal crime, total household crime, burglary and vehicle crime. The information on crime, fear of crime and disorder is drawn from the 2000 British Crime Survey. The local census variables (relating to postcode sectors) are drawn from the 1991 England and Wales Census. The results show that the modelling of measures of fear and disorder is more robust than the modelling of crime. Therefore, it appears more possible to predict types of area where concern about crime and problems of disorder are likely to be highest than to predict those areas most at risk of crime.