STOCHASTIC SIMULATION OF VERTEBRAL TRABECULAR BONE REMODELING

Bone remodeling changes bone mass, architecture, and thereby bone strength, during normal aging. These changes seem to be accelerated during the menopause. Several therapeutic agents have been used in order to delay the onset of the menopause-related changes. The effects of these agents on the remodeling process have been determined histomorphometrically in several short-term clinical studies, but data from long-term clinical studies are difficult to achieve, as are data on the influence on bone strength. The aim of this study was to develop a computer simulation model that could assist in predicting the long-term effects of changes in the remodeling process on bone mass, trabecular thickness, and perforations. The paper presents such a stochastic model of the remodeling process in human vertebral trabecular bone. The computer model is based on histomorphometric and structural data from human studies. It is presented in terms of flow charts, and simulations performed with the model are discussed in relation to measurements on human vertebral bone samples. The results show that a menopause-related doubling of the activation frequency causes a transient, mainly reversible bone loss. If the menopause is accompanied by an increase in both activation frequency and resorption depth, then the resulting bone loss will be more pronounced and with a larger part being irreversible bone loss (perforations). The two antiresorptive agents Etidronate and estrogen both cause a slight increase in bone mass (reducing remodeling space), and Etidronate also seems capable of preventing perforations. During fluoride therapy, an initial increase in remodeling space followed by a reduction is seen. Very few perforations are found to take place during fluoride therapy. The present model has been validated by assessing the effects of the menopause and treatment with antiresorptive or anabolic agents. It was found that the results mirrored very closely the results (bone mass measurements) from short-term clinical studies. It is therefore concluded that the model provides a tool for evaluating existing and new therapeutic regimens.