OUTLOOK FOR NORTH-AMERICAN NATURAL-GAS SUPPLIES

The underlying resource base for North American natural gas is large, sufficient for nearly 100 years of current consumption. As such, the issues are not the size of the resource, but how to convert this resource into economically competitive supply. The key questions are: Will the cost (price) of natural gas remain competitive? What is the status of near-term deliverability? Will there be enough supply to meet growing demand? These economic and market issues frame the outlook for gas supplies in North America. Most importantly, they will determine how natural gas emerges from its competition for markets with other fuels and electricity. The paper addresses these questions by examining: (I) the underlying nature of the natural gas resource base; (2) the current status and trends in deliverability; and, (3) the potential of new technologies for producing gas more cost-effectively.