Israelis and Palestinians in 2004

The Middle East has been caught in a cycle of Israeli-Palestinian violence for the last two years. Last year brought some changes that have the potential to bring about a shift in this violent situation. First, within a very short time period two figureheads of the Islamic militant group Hamas were killed by Israelis: the spiritual leader Sheikh Ahamad Yassin and the leader of Hamas, Abdal Aziz Al Rantissi. Second, an important development in the past year was the change in the policy of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. He came up with the so-called "Disengagement Plan", which envisioned the retreat of Israeli settlers from the Gaza Strip. Such a plan was not expected from a settlement-pioneer like Sharon. Third, an event of great importance for the Middle East was the re-election of American President George W. Bush. US diplomacy plays a crucial role in the Middle East. Fourth, probably the most important event in the region was the death of long-time Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. His death will have a strong in uence on the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations. The four developments are in the center of this article's analysis.