A SIMULATION-MODEL OF THE DUTCH TOURISM MARKET

This paper reports on a simulation model for the Dutch tourism market. The model attempts to capture the principal determinant mechanisms of tourism demand by households, and tourism supply by industries. Demand is disaggregated into different types of holidays per region or country, and is modeled by means of a three-stage decision process, applying advanced econometric techniques on high quality micro and macro datasets. The supply side of the market is also split up into branches: supply is modeled through prices, equally estimated using econometrics, and large datasets. The working of the model is illustrated by a medium term forecast and a simulation exercise.