Income Migration and Home Price Trajectories in the United States

This paper models one facet of the relationship between housing market price shifts and income migration among U.S. regions: how income migration relates to regional housing price clusters. The tremendous negative slide in national housing prices from 2006 to 2012 had an uneven spatial distribution. These differences are explored within the context of net income and net population migration (movement of money with people). Median housing prices for urban areas from 2005 to 2010 and IRS county-to-county migration data are used to compare income migration among urban clusters of similar housing price trends. Selective migrations of people and income in and out of these housing clusters have either exacerbated the housing bust or softened its decline. Income effectiveness, or the gain or loss of money caused by migration, is a helpful measure that can be used to help predict future housing price movements.