Scanning Beyond the Horizon: Exploring the Ontological and Epistemological Basis for Scenario Planning

The two-step process of scenario building and action planning that constitutes scenario planning enables methodological rigor, theory testing, and good inquiry to be demonstrated by researchers through established criteria. This article focuses on the philosophical underpinnings of scenario planning that have not been addressed in the human resource development literature and that are treated as problematic from a theoretical perspective because of the conjectural nature of the future. This article categorizes these underpinnings and reviews the claims that can be made with respect to their ontological and epistemological status. A pragmatic perspective that builds on critical realist and constructivist-interpretive paradigms to emphasize decision-making utility as the outcome of inquiry rather than testable knowledge production is proposed.