DISTRIBUTION OF SPOT AND FORWARD EXCHANGE-RATES - EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE AND INVESTOR VALUATION OF SKEWNESS AND KURTOSIS

This paper examines the statistical distribution of exchange rates for eight major currencies for the post‐1973 floating rate period. The results show that spot rates, forward rates, and ex‐post risk premia all exhibit significant, persistent, but varying deviations from normality, and that the risk premia in forward rates reflect investor preferences for skewness and investor aversion towards standard deviation and kurtosis. These results imply that foreign currency forecasting and hedging practices, mean‐variance portfolio analysis, pricing of foreign currency options, and other research involving exchange rates should account for these significant deviations from normality. Copyright © 1990, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved