FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES AT FINNISH SAWMILLS BY THE YEAR 2000

The future of the Finnish sawmilling industry up to the year 2000 is analysed by Ilkka Poyhonen in his doctoral thesis, in which he examines capacity and its structure, together with the proportion of small and medium-sized sawmills. The method used was scenario analysis, and the variables were future market trends, available raw material resources and the opportunity afforded by profits to update existing capacity. A capacity reduction formula was produced to forecast the future structure of the industry. This led to a definition of the future functioning limits of the sawmilling industry and of its internal structure in the year 2000 (article on pages 186-189). The profitability of sawmilling proved to be a critical factor for the industry's future development. Based on the profitability scenarios, sawing capacity will fall to between 6.9 and 7.6 million m3 depeding on the grade of product in question. This is well below the figure of 9.5-9.9 million m3 provided by the market and also below the 9.7-10.7 million m3 provided by the quantity of raw material available. This decrease in capacity will result in a marked structural change, with a major reduction in the numbers of small and medium-sized sawmills. By the year 2000, the total number of sawmills in Finland will have fallen to only 33% of the number in 1990. This means that most of Finland's sawn timber will be produced at fairly large production units in the future.