THE RESUMPTION OF FERTILITY DECLINE IN JAPAN - 1973-92

After a period of some 15 years during which fertility was at replacement level, Japan experienced a resumption of fertility decline, starting in 1973, that has continued to the present. This article analyzes the fertility decline in postwar Japan, especially since 1973, and the demographic and socioeconomic factors contributing to it. The analysis, based primarily on period parity progression ratios, suggests that Japan's fertility decline since 1973 has occurred mainly because of postponement of marriage and first birth and declines in ratios Of Progression to marriage and first birth. It is shown that women's rising educational attainment plays an important role in inducing the new marriage and fertility pattern. The effect Of women's education is associated with a number of related socioeconomic changes, including rising wages of women and higher opportunity costs of marriage and childbearing, as well as changes in values.