SIMULATING POLICY ALTERNATIVES FOR LONG-TERM CARE - AN EXAMPLE OF THE ORCUTT APPROACH

The paper briefly describes the genesis of Guy Orcutt's pathbreaking work on micro-simulation models and discusses the use of such models for analyzing public policy options. It then describes a recent study of Long-Term Care for the Elderly by Rivlin and Wiener, which uses a dynamic micro-simulation model. The model provided estimates to the year 2020 of the number of disabled elderly, their personal characteristics and financial resources and how their care is likely to be financed if no policy changes occur. It also yielded estimates of the costs and effects of alternative financing mechanisms, public and private. The model has proved useful in evaluating potentially costly policy options. © 1990.