Cross-market spillovers with 'volatility surprise'

This article adopts the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) model developed by Vargas (2008), by updating the concept of 'volatility surprise' to capture cross-market relationships. Current methods formeasuring spillovers do not focus on volatility interactions, and neglect cross-effects between the conditional variances. This paper aims to fill this gap. The dataset includes four aggregate indices representing equities, bonds, foreign exchange rates and commodities from 1983 to 2013. The results provide strong evidence of spillover effects coming fromthe 'volatility surprise' component acrossmarkets. Against the background of the recent financial crisis, the aim is to contribute to the literature on the interdependencies of financial markets, both in conditional means and (co) variances. In addition, asset management implications are derived. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.