COST OF SPACE-BASED LASER BALLISTIC-MISSILE DEFENSE

The cost of an orbiting infrared laser ballistic missile defense system employed against intercontinental ballistic missiles launched simultaneously from a small area is compared to the cost of additional offensive missiles. If one adopts lower limits to the costs for the defense and upper limits to the costs for the offense, the cost-exchange ratio comes out substantially greater than 1. If these estimates are confirmed, such a ballistic missile defense system would be unable to maintain its effectiveness at less cost than it would take to proliferate the ballistic missiles necessary to overcome it and would therefore not satisfy the President's requirements for an effective strategic defense. Although the method is illustrated by applying it to a space-based infrared laser system, it should be straightforward to apply it to other proposed systems.