ECONOMIC SCALE, ENERGY AND SUSTAINABILITY - AN INTERNATIONAL EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS

This paper examines the relationship of economic scale, as reflected in a country's energy throughput, to that of renewable energy flows through the supporting ecosystem. The renewable flow is net primary productivity (NPP) and is calculated by country and grouped by income per capita levels. The use of fossil fuels first rises and then declines relative to available renewable energies as gross national product (GNP) per capita rises, suggesting that sustainability may be feasible in developed countries if energy efficiency is pursued rigorously. A strong sustainability condition requiring only renewable energy use is investigated by calculating GNP with two levels of NPP energy. Excess GNP (i.e. beyond current levels) is shown to be positive in developing countries but negative in developed countries, suggesting that a reduction in GNP is in order for developed economies or that additional renewable supplies must be found. The 'energy intensity' - i.e. the energy used to generate a dollar (or a given money unit) of GNP - increases rapidly in early development, reaches a peak and then declines while GNP per capita climbs. GNP is found to be related to NPP in early development but relies primarily on fossil fuels in later development. The neoclassical economics condition, 'more is better' for public welfare, may be pertinent before the energy intensity transition but different conditions, characterized by resource efficiencies and sufficiency, seem to hold after the transition and are necessary for sustainability.