SOCIAL USEFULNESS OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS AND THEIR USE IN THE HISTORY OF METEOROLOGY

The article "Deterministic noperiodic flow" published in 1963 by the mathematician Edward Lorenz is considered the starting point of the research on the deterministic chaos and also as one of the most sweeping changes of the epistemological approach to the study of nature. Since 1963 it seems clear that the natural world is inherently probabilistic and social utility increases if the predictions are also issued in a probabilistic sense. In this paper after analyzing the scientific and social usefulness of these predictions will examine their history in the field of meteorology, a method that has been used since the late nineteenth century. Also some results of parallel investigations by the author in Italy where data that reflects the understanding of the Italian and Spanish users on the same issue. Also the problems found by the meteorologists when probabilistic dissemination is used, are presented in this paper. The use and dissemination of probabilistic prediction are still not much explored in natural sciences although it may become a very appropriate method.