MODIFIED MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION FOR PROBABILISTIC SCHEDULING

This paper presents the Simplified Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS) method. The SMCS method can be used to perform risk analysis of construction networks, and produce results as accurate as Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) while requiring less computing time. Thirty-one construction networks were used to compare the SMCS results with MCS results. Two cases are presented in this paper. SMCS performs the same type of replications as MCS but in a smaller network, reducing computing time from fifteen to seventy percent when compared with MCS. Moreover, SMCS can be used to identify activities that are more likely to cause delay of the project, as well as activities that are not likely to have impact in the duration of the project.