SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF THE AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE NORTH OF ITALY

The study of avalanche events is particularly important to assess and predict the degree of risk involved in a given area and time. In this work we consider an alternative methodology based on a space-time point process where the intensity function indicates the limiting expected rate of occurrence of snow avalanches occurring on day t at location (x, y), conditioned on the historical information available prior to time t. The model depends also on some environmental variables (degree of slope, exposure, altitude, etc.) which may be considered as covariates. In order to show the spatio temporal modeling of the avalanche hazard we consider the application to the digitalized Avalanche Database of the Trentino region, Italy.