ADJUSTING THE FLOW - 2 COMMENTS ON THE MIDDLE-EAST WATER CRISIS

Whereas almost all nations in the Middle East face a chronic problem of water shortage, the riparians of the Jordan River (mainly Israel, Jordan, and Palestine) are close to crisis. To deal with this situation, it is suggested that the emphasis in water management be shifted from supply to demand and from quantity to quality. This approach emulates alternative energy analysis, dubbed the ''soft path,'' which has demonstrated that it is typically economically cheaper and ecologically less damaging to approach problems from the demand than from the supply side. Major opportunities exist to increase efficiency of use in the Jordan River basin, particularly for irrigation, which is by far the main consumer Other opportunities lie in avoiding the degradation arising from excessive use of pesticides and fertilizers, inadequate treatment of sewage, and industrial dumping. Continuing the analogy to energy, policy analysis should be recast in terms of normative scenarios so as to determine the feasibility and impacts of alternative policies and reactions. All sides see close linkage between water and security. Therefore, only through exploration of alternative futures, not simply projection of the present into the future, can we find ways to minimize the potential for conflict.