DESCRIBING AND FORECASTING THE SARDINE-ANCHOVY COMPLEX IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN USING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS

A Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model, including two variables (anchovy and sardine catches) and six lags adequately described and forcasted the anchovy-sardine complex in the eastern Mediterranean (Greece) during 1964-1987. The model explained 93 and 72% of the variability of the anchovy and sardine catches, respectively, and produced accurate and unbiassed fits and forecasts. Annual anchovy and sardine catches were fitted within an absolute percentage error (APE) range of 1.9-26.9% (mean APE = 9.5%) and 0.4-13.2% (mean APE = 4.6%). Forecasts for 1985-1987 had APE values ranging between 4.9 and 20.9 and 4.7 and 19% for anchovy and sardine, respectively. The model predicted persistence, a 3-year periodicity of catches, and a negative relationship between anchovy and sardine catches, all of which are consistent with micro-economic and biological/oceanographic observations on the fisheries of these species in the Mediterranean.