THE TERMS-OF-TRADE EFFECTS OF MOVING TO WORLD PRICES ON COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER SOVIET-UNION

In this paper we provide the first documented estimates of the terms-of-trade impact on all 15 countries of the former Soviet Union of shifting to international prices in their trade. We decompose the total impact of a change in the terms-of-trade into a change in the interrepublic and extrarepublic terms-of-trade. The broad pattern is that raw material and energy exporters, notably Russia, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, are estimated to gain, whereas countries that concentrate on food and machinery exports, notably the Baltic states, Belarus, and especially Moldova. are estimated to be the biggest losers. J. Comp. Econom., February 1994, 18(1), pp. 1-24. Trade Policy Division, Policy and Research Department, The World Bank, Washington. DC 20433. (C) 1994 Academic Press, Inc.