Assessing the Impact of Food Embargoes and Economic Sanctions on the Commodity Markets (the Example of Meat Markets)

The author developed a method allowing to quantify the consequences of the embargo and sanctions on the commodity markets, the basis of which was a partial equilibrium model. Other methodological components - geometrical interpretation of winning (loosing) producers and consumers, as well as the regression equations, allowing to determine the price of producers in the forecast period. The method has been tested on the meat markets (beef, pork, poultry). Estimates were made of changes in foreign trade, prices of producers and consumers, the dynamics of production, loss of budget, the losses of producers and consumers. The results showed that the markets with a high dependence on imports under the influence of the embargo and sanctions in the welfare of losing more than the markets with less dependence. The strongest pressure in these conditions domestic producers are experiencing in the beef market. Pork producers benefited from the rise in prices, but consumers suffered, as well as the budget from a sharp reduction in revenues in the form of import duties. Poultry market showed good stability and welfare under the embargo and sanctions due to the high competition, mainly between the large enterprises. The difference between the proposed method and those known earlier is that studies are usually limited to assessments of changes in foreign trade, while in this paper the author made a complex analysis. In addition, relevant estimates were obtained for producer and consumer prices, production dynamics, budget losses by source, winnings (losses) for producers and consumers.