CEO Optimism and Analyst Forecast Bias

被引：16
|
作者：
Wong, M. [1 ,2 ]
Zhang, X. [3 ]
机构：
[1] INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France
[2] Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
[3] Yale Univ, New Haven, CT USA
来源：
JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING AUDITING AND FINANCE | 2014年 / 29卷 / 03期
关键词：
managerial optimism; self-attribution bias; equity analyst; forecast bias;
D O I：
10.1177/0148558X14536185
中图分类号：
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号：
0202 ;
摘要：
We examine analysts' forecast behavior in a setting in which CEOs are optimistic and analysts react rationally to CEO optimism. We document that the bias in analysts' consensus forecasts is negatively related to the level of CEO optimism. The negative relation is stronger for small firms, firms with low analyst followings, and firms with high uncertainty. Analysts revise downward their forecasts for next year's earnings less relative to their revision for current year's earnings for firms with more optimistic CEOs, a result consistent with optimistic CEOs are subject to self-attribution bias. The stock price reactions to downward forecast revisions and missing analysts' forecasts are less negative for firms with optimistic CEOs, indicating that investors understand the implications of CEO optimism for analysts' forecast bias and subsequent revisions.
引用
收藏
页码：367 / 392
页数：26
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Analyst bias and forecast consistency
    Byun, Sanghyuk
    Roland, Kristin
    [J]. ACCOUNTING AND FINANCE, 2021, 61 (04): : 5403 - 5437
  • [2] Distress risk puzzle and analyst forecast optimism
    Chu, K. C. Kenneth
    Zhai, W. H. Sophia
    [J]. REVIEW OF QUANTITATIVE FINANCE AND ACCOUNTING, 2021, 57 (02) : 429 - 460
  • [3] Distress risk puzzle and analyst forecast optimism
    K. C. Kenneth Chu
    W. H. Sophia Zhai
    [J]. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 2021, 57 : 429 - 460
  • [4] Supplier concentration and analyst forecast bias
    Jia, Xiaotong
    Wu, Kai
    [J]. CHINA JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, 2023, 16 (04)
  • [5] Earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias
    Gu, ZY
    Wu, JS
    [J]. JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING & ECONOMICS, 2003, 35 (01): : 5 - 29
  • [6] ANALYST FORECAST OPTIMISM AND MARKET REACTION: Australian Evidence
    Sadique, M.
    Rahman, M.
    [J]. JASSA-THE FINSIA JOURNAL OF APPLIED FINANCE, 2014, (03): : 19 - 26
  • [7] Under the dome: Air pollution and analyst forecast optimism
    Wang, Ying
    Liu, Zisen
    [J]. RESEARCH IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE, 2024, 70
  • [8] Stock market openness and analyst forecast bias
    Chen, Shenglan
    Lin, Bingxuan
    Lu, Rui
    Ma, Hui
    [J]. JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING AND PUBLIC POLICY, 2021, 40 (06)
  • [9] Friends in media: Implications of media connections for analyst forecast optimism
    Hossain, Md Miran
    Mammadov, Babak
    Vakilzadeh, Hamid
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS, 2024, 93
  • [10] Stock dividend and analyst optimistic bias in earnings forecast
    Huang, Lixin
    Li, Wei
    Wang, Hong
    Wu, Liansheng
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE, 2022, 78 : 643 - 659
12345