PUBLIC-HOUSING AND THE CONCENTRATION OF POVERTY

To examine the premise that public housing represents an important cause of poverty concentration in U.S. cities, a four-equation model is estimated. The first equation predicts the likelihood that public housing projects were built within census tracts of the Chicago SMSA between 1950 and 1970, given socioeconomic and housing characteristics in 1950. Then the effect that project location had on tract poverty rates in 1970 is estimated, controlling for socioeconomic composition in 1950. The third equation estimates the effect of tract poverty rates and public housing location on the rate of net migration between 1970 and 1980. The last equation estimates the effect of project location and net migration on the concentration of poverty in 1980. The results show that public housing projects were targeted to poor, black neighborhoods and that the presence of housing projects substantially increased the concentration of poverty in later years.