EQUILIBRIUM AND DISORDER IN HUMAN DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES - SOME METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS WITHIN THE NEW PARADIGM

According to Prof. Herbert Simon, the key variable within the human decision-making process still is the inelastic attention span of the decision maker. In this paper, we try to look more closely at this aspect and demonstrate that there is an optimum decision-making time based on information availability. With the help of some small-scale simulation models, we examine the relationships between the stability of the controlled system (measured by the warning level of two parameters) and the decision time span. We define the system's response as a so-called sensitivity structural matrix (a bifurcation matrix). The paper ascertains that it is dangerous to speed up information in systems of great complexity, that is, systems that hold great potential of surprise. Hasty decisions encapsulate many possible pitfalls. The discussion is held both within the framework of chaos and within the informational approach to econometrics framework. Nowadays, there is a great need to devise more stable societal systems. Assuming that the main driving forces behind societal evolution are our mental constructions and dialogue capabilities, we propose, in conclusion, an index to measure this stability, stability defined as our increased consciousness of the myriad of interlinkages that strongly connect man with nature and with technology.