ETHNICITY AND LEADERSHIP SUCCESSION IN AFRICA

This analysis uses cross-national data to test hypotheses from the literature on ethnicity in African politics. The first hypothesis is that, all else being equal, the larger the population share of the leader's ethnic group, the lower the probability that the leader loses power, We reject this hypothesis and show that leaders from larger ethnic groups run relatively greater risks of losing power than those from smaller ethnic groups. Nor do leaders from smaller ethnic groups resort more to nonconstitutional means of leadership change. We also show that African leaders are disproportionately likely to be replaced by leaders from their own ethnic group.