A Forecasting Method for Fertilizers Consumption in Brazil

被引：3

作者：

Ogasawara, Eduardo ^{[1
]}

de Oliveira, Daniel ^{[1
]}

Paschoal Junior, Fabio ^{[1
]}

Castaneda, Rafael ^{[1
]}

Amorim, Myrna

Mauro, Renato ^{[1
]}

Soares, Jorge ^{[1
]}

Quadros, Joao ^{[1
]}

Bezerra, Eduardo ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] CEFET Fed Ctr Technol Educ Celso Suckow Fonseca, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS | 2013年 / 4卷 / 02期

关键词：

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA); Fertilizers Consumption; Forecast; Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Logistic Function; Population;

D O I：

10.4018/jaeis.2013040103

中图分类号：

TP39 [计算机的应用];

学科分类号：

081203 ; 0835 ;

摘要：

Tracking information about fertilizers consumption in the world is very important since they are used to produce agriculture commodities. Brazil consumes a large amount of fertilizers due to its large-scale agriculture fields. Most of these fertilizers are currently imported. The analysis of consumption of major fertilizers, such as Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Potassium (NPK), Sulfur, Phosphate Rock, Potash, and Nitrogen become critical for long-term government decisions. In this paper we present a method for fertilizers consumption forecasting based on both Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and logistic function models. Our method was used to forecast fertilizers consumption in Brazil for the next 20 years considering different economic growth for the entire country.

引用

页码：23 / 36

页数：14

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