Population ageing: opportunities and challenges for retail banking

Purpose - This paper seeks to shed light on the challenges and opportunities demographic transitions bring about to the banking sector. Increasing life expectancy, coupled with an increasing old age dependency ratio has implications for the demand for financial services. This opens a window of opportunity for the banking sector to adjust its services so as to meet these changes and reap the benefit of demographic changes. Design/methodology/approach - The paper uses demographic forecasts made by the United Nations Population Division, to which are applied established economic models on life cycle behaviour. Based on the findings, light is shed on potential scenarios that banks may encounter. Findings - The life cycle models predict a higher overall asset accumulation level and a higher savings level, at least initially, in an ageing population. Other life cycle behaviour models point out that individuals' risk aversion increases with age, while evidence shows that population ageing exposes individuals to greater risks. This increases the need for households to appropriately diversify and manage the risks they face, and encourages the development of products that are better tailored to these growing needs. Originality/value - The paper proposes that banks can contribute to creating financial stability. Banks can participate in financial education and consequently increase households' motivation to save more and in better ways. Consumer demand encountered by banks is shifting from credit products to savings products. The investment packages currently offered by banks need to adapt to changing needs: combined annuity and life insurance packages are one option.