ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR TOURISM-DEPENDENT NATIONS

Changes in climate are expected to significantly affect participation in recreation and tourism and the provision of tourism products and services. Because tourism is an important economic sector for many developing nations, the potential vulnerability of tourism to climate change is of interest. Various biophysical factors affect the vulnerability of tourism, including temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events. Vulnerability may be characterized in terms of impacts to tourism arrivals, revenues, tax receipts, and adaptation costs, all of which ultimately affect national income, gross domestic product, and socioeconomic welfare. This article proposes a conceptual framework, based on an economic model of supply and demand, for the assessment of the economic vulnerability to climate change for tourism-dependent nations. We draw upon elements of this framework in a vulnerability assessment for Belize as a case study for demonstration. The framework has implications for tourism planning, training and outreach for the tourism industry, and the identification of future research and development priorities at the national and regional scales.