l Citizen Forecasts of the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

被引：21

作者：

Miller, Michael K. ^{[1
]}

Wang, Guanchun ^{[2
]}

Kulkarni, Sanjeev R. ^{[3
]}

Poor, H. Vincent ^{[4
]}

Osherson, Daniel N. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Australian Natl Univ, Sch Polit & Int Relat, Canberra, ACT, Australia

[2] Lightspeed China Ventures, Menlo Pk, CA USA

[3] Princeton Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[4] Princeton Univ, Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[5] Princeton Univ, Dept Psychol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

来源：

POLITICS & POLICY | 2012年 / 40卷 / 06期

关键词：

Citizen Forecasts; Individual Election Predictions; 2008 U.S. Presidential Election; Partisan Bias; Voter Information; Voter Preference; Wishful Thinking Bias in Elections;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1747-1346.2012.00394.x

中图分类号：

D0 [政治学、政治理论];

学科分类号：

0302 ; 030201 ;

摘要：

We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Employing an original survey of more than 19,000 respondents, we find that partisans gave higher probabilities to their favored candidates, but this bias was reduced by education, numerical sophistication, and the level of Obama support in their home states. In aggregate, we show that individual biases balance out, and the group's predictions were highly accurate, outperforming both Intrade (a prediction market) and fivethirtyeight.com (a poll-based forecast). The implication is that electoral forecasters can often do better asking individuals who they think will win rather than who they want to win.

引用

页码：1019 / 1052

页数：34

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