THE 1990S AT THE HALFWAY MARK

In ''Investing in the 1990s'' [Journal of Portfolio Management 1991], the author outlined a simple methodology for analyzing long-term total returns on financial assets using three components of return. A sequel, ''Occam's Razor Revisited,'' tested the methodology as a tool for forecasting ten-year financial market returns. With the decade of the 1990s now at the halfway mark, this article examines the accuracy of the author's forecasts, and presents some new perspectives on risk premiums and asset allocation.