THE IDEA OF DEMOGRAPHIC-TRANSITION AND THE STUDY OF FERTILITY CHANGE - A CRITICAL INTELLECTUAL HISTORY

The idea of demographic transition was the product of a particular conception of demographic social science as simultaneously investigative science and policymaking guide, This Proposition is demonstrated principally through an analysis of the writings of Frank Notestein, set in the context of relevant aspects of the intellectual, institutional, and political history of the period c. 1930-60. This provenance helps to explain the persistence of the idea of demographic transition in the study of fertility change, since policy relevance has continued to exert strong influence in this field. As a result insufficient consideration has been given to the full range of alternative social scientific methodologies that are available for the study of fertility change. It is therefore argued that emancipation from the transition idea and from its associated, rather dated methodology is a condition for further intellectual progress in the study of fertility change.