EU Enlargement and Migration: Scenarios of Croatian Accession

被引：0

作者：

Strielkowski, Wadim ^{[1
]}

Sarkova, Kristyna ^{[2
]}

Zornaczuk, Tomasz ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Charles Univ Prague, Econ, Inst Econ Studies, Fac Social Sci, Prague, Czech Republic

[2] Charles Univ Prague, Fac Social Sci, Inst Econ Studies, Prague, Czech Republic

[3] Polish Inst Int Affairs, Warsaw, Poland

来源：

ROMANIAN JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN AFFAIRS | 2013年 / 13卷 / 03期

关键词：

international migration; EU enlargement; Croatia; panel data; seemingly unrelated regressions;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

D81 [国际关系];

学科分类号：

030207 ;

摘要：

This paper analyzes the possible incidence of pending** Croatian EU accession that is to take place on the 1st of July 2013, on the labour migration from Croatia to the European Union. We apply panel data estimators using the data on emigration from 18 EU countries into Germany (which is the EU country with the largest share of ex-Yugoslav and Croatian migrants) in order to construct possible scenarios of Croatian migration to the EU. Three scenarios of migration - pessimistic, realistic and optimistic - are drawn and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Croatia into Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail. We conclude that, similarly to hypothetical Turkish accession, Croatian EU accession is not going to cause massive migration inflows.

引用

页码：53 / 63

页数：11

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