Crystal Balling FutureThreats 2020-2030: Security Foresights of "Actors" and "Drivers" in Perspective

This article clusters future threats as foreseen in security foresight studies made by security-related institutions, organizations and think-tanks from around the globe and adds to each cluster the knowledge and views from the literature. Many security foresight studies foresee increasing economic and politico-military regionalization. The power blocks that may emerge from this are said to make the world increasingly multi-polar. In security foresights two scenarios in particular emerge. In the most common scenario, Russia under Putin searches and obtains more political, military and economic growth and power. Security foresights give, generally speaking, little attention to the European Union, and the prospects they give are diffuse. Very often growth is foreseen in geographic breadth as well as institutionally in depth. A trend with regard to developments on failing states is absent. In security foresights, however, two different schools of thought exist on this issue. The optimists build their ideas on the notions of the Enlightenment and foresee the world to be in an upward spiral of development.