Friends Again? Canada, Obama, and the Big Picture

For all the euphoria that marked Canadians' reaction to Barack Obama's accession to the U.S. presidency, the Canada-U.S. relationship promises to remain complicated. To make sense of the situation, a sharp distinction must be made between public opinion and the policy orientations of governments. Thus, throughout the Bush years, bilateral relations in key policy areas remained close-and even grew closer-at the same time that hostility of Canadians toward the U.S. administration was extreme. Conversely, several factors-not including broad hemispheric issues, which count for little in the Canada-U.S. relationship-seem likely to dampen bilateral policy enthusiasm through much of Obama's first term, despite his great personal appeal and his better fit near the center of the Canadian political spectrum. Parallel and competing domestic priorities can have adverse effects on bilateral trade, which accounts for a large part of the Canadian economy; the partnership is far from natural between the Obama White House and the Conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, and while Obama is ramping up U.S. military engagement in Afghanistan, Canada is seeking to get out. Still, Canadians seem ready to absorb important policy differences in the face of what they overwhelmingly believe to be the big picture: that Barack Obama is good for the United States and for the world.