A MODEL FOR HEAT AND WATER-BALANCE ESTIMATION AND ITS APPLICATION TO LAND-USE AND CLIMATE VARIATION

This paper presents a method, which has been recently developed in the Department of Agrometeorology of the Poznan Agricultural University, for estimating heat balance components based on standard meteorological data, plant development stage, and land-use conditions. Estimates of latent heat flux components made it possible to obtain values of areal evapotranspiration and surface runoff. The method was applied in four catchment areas in Central Poland under present climatic conditions as well as under new, expected climatic conditions caused by an increase of 'greenhouse gases' in the atmosphere. Some changes in land use were also considered. The results show significant changes in the water balance when comparing present and future conditions of precipitation and evapotranspiration.