FUTURE CLIMATE-CHANGE AND LAND-USE IN THE UNITED-KINGDOM

A consensus of scientific opinion believes that the next few decades will see further rises in global-mean surface air temperature owing to the increasing global concentration of radiatively active greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This paper outlines the climatic implications for the UK of global warming in terms of the rate of change, the effect on regional climate and the frequency and severity of some extreme weather events. The expected associated change in sea level around the UK coast is also discussed. The extent of the uncertainty surrounding projections of climate change is indicated. Such changes in mean temperature and precipitation are expected to have an impact on the land use and vegetation pattern of the UK. The sensitivity of the British landscape to these changes is examined through the use of the Climatic Land Classification, which is based upon the structure of the Institute of Terrestrial Ecology's land class system. This model demonstrates for Britain the response of land use types and plant species to arbitrary increases in temperature and/or precipitation.