Determining Critical Members of Layered Operational Terrorist Networks

This study provides a quantitative method for destabilizing clandestine network operations, by determining which critical members to remove or influence in order to impact operations. The quantitative value of criticality is established by three measures: (1) the members' social connectedness across multi-layered affiliations, (2) their involvement in operations, and (3) their emergence during periods and at locations of interest. Various techniques, including centrality, risk analysis, system reliability, and decision analysis, are incorporated to determine a member's criticality to the group's operations. The advantage of synergistically leveraging the social, operational, and temporal local criticality of group members allows for the maximum disruption of the group's structure and operations, thus diminishing its effectiveness.