Structural change and economic growth: a calibration exercise for Turkey

Using data for the years 1972-2006, we calibrate the dynamic general equilibrium model of structural change by Kongsamut et al. (2001) to Turkey. We then predict the shares of output and employment for the agricultural, manufacturing, and services sectors along the balanced growth path for Turkey until 2050. Similar to the past experience of the developed economies, we observe a declining share of agriculture in both employment and output. However, the rate of decline is much slower and based on the model, we predict the agricultural sector will still have a 10% share of output and employment by 2050 in Turkey.