A comparative study of trends in mortality rates of the ageing population in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland, 1966-1986

The populations of Finland and the three Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Norway and Sweden) have experienced relatively marked differences regarding trends in mortality rates since the Second World War. To assess factors that might contribute to these differences, a cohort analysis was performed based upon vital statistics for the age category 45 years to 89 years, from the four countries, for the period 1966-86. The results of log-linear modelling, which included the effects of age, period, and cohort, on mortality rates, revealed differences in the effect of age parameters on mortality between Finland and the three Scandinavian countries. These differences may be related to a genetic component. Differences in patterns of mortality rates over time relating to period and cohort effects indicate a differential development in lifestyle-related risk factors associated with the major causes of death. Based on differences in goodness-of-fit of the log-linear models, it is suggested that the Finnish population has experienced a more heterogeneous development in mortality over time than has the Scandinavian. This may be related to the greater social inequities that have existed in Finland than in Scandinavia during the decades under study.