RADIATIVE FORCING DUE TO GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS IN FINLAND - ESTIMATING THE CONTROL POTENTIAL

The developed REFUGE computer model is used to assess radiative forcing due to man-induced CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions in Finland. Both the emission history and assumed future, control scenarios for emissions and forest carbon sink are considered. CO2 emissions from the use of the fossil fuels cause most of the radiative forcing due to human activities in Finland. Other important contributors to radiative forcing are N2O emissions from agriculture and transportation well as CH4 emissions from animal husbandry and waste disposal. Radiative forcing in the year 1990 due to the considered Finnish emissions is estimated to be approximately 3 mW/m2, which is approximately 0.15% of global radiative forcing (the population of Finland is - 0.09% of the Earth's population). Radiative forcing due to emissions resulting from human activities in Finland is increasing, and due to the slow change rates in emission producing activities and the slow removal of CO2 and N2O from the atmosphere, it seems unlikely that radiative forcing will be reduced in the next century to below the 1990 level using emission control. A remarkable additional measure in the control of radiative forcing due to activities in Finland might be to increase carbon storage in the forest ecosystem for some decades and to maintain this storage.