MODELING THE LAND-USE AND GREENHOUSE-GAS IMPLICATIONS OF BIOFUELS

The emergence of biofuels as an agricultural commodity has integrated the agricultural, energy and livestock sectors and expanded the scope of models being used to analyze the effects of energy policies. It has increased the importance of incorporating spatial heterogeneity in land availability and productivity and information about the biophysical and economic determinants of land use change at multiple spatial scales. Since biofuels affect food and fuel prices, they have expanded the boundaries of economic models to consider not only their direct but also their indirect effects on land use and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper describes the demand-side and supply-side determinants of these direct and indirect changes in land use and greenhouse gas emissions with biofuels. We discuss the major modeling approaches used to analyze these effects, their strengths, limitations and key findings and directions for future research.