AN ANALYSIS OF POPULATION-POLICY IN EGYPT - USING INFORMATION FROM RECENT SURVEYS

This article attempts an evaluation of the population policy of the host country to the International Population Conference. Following failure of its previous policies, the government's objectives are modest: a birth rate of 25 per 1000 by 2007. The birth rate dropped below 30 per 1,000 only in 1992, and not in 1978 as forecast by the Nasser government. These modest goals are explained by the limited popularity of small families, and also by a certain lack of interest on the part of those involved in population policy, sometimes at the highest levels of government. Population policy in Egypt has favoured modern contraception as a means of reducing the birth rate. However, experience in some Muslim and Arab countries has shown that modern contraception is not the only method of accelerating the demographic transition. Traditional contraception is encouraged in Turkey, and breastfeeding is still very widespread in Indonesia despite socio-economic modernization. Lastly, the experience of the three Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia) shows that it is useless to expect a reduction in fertility without abandoning early marriage (in 1992, women's mean age at marriage exceeded 25 years in the Maghreb, compared with 22.4 in Egypt). However, raising the age at marriage is linked to the more general issue of women's status in Egyptian society, which seems to be deteriorating, as shown by excess mortality of females in childhood, excisions, unequal education for boys and girls, and low employment rates for women.