CLIMATE-CHANGE AND AGRICULTURAL TRADE - WHO BENEFITS, WHO LOSES

Estimates of the potential effect of three different climate scenarios for world agriculture are made. The scenarios show that the impacts differ significantly among the scenarios and among countries. The direct impact of climate change on yield, the global effect on commodity prices, and the export/import status of a country are shown to determine the economic winners and losers. The trade effects and the high degree of uncertainty should be critical considerations in adaptation policies.