A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL OF SUBMARINE OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE SCHEDULES

The extent to which a proposed military force will achieve operational objectives is a prime concern of defence planners. This paper discusses the problem in the context of the exercise of sea power in distant waters and shows that a model of the whole problem would require a feedback analysis, for which an appropriate approach would be system dynamics. Such models have, in general, been continuous, but ships are discrete objects. The paper therefore addresses the construction of discrete system dynamics models as the basis for a model of the whole problem. Two models of a submarine force are presented. The first deals with the construction and major refit programmes, to evaluate the periods of fleet service availability achievable from a submarine force of a given size. The second examines unit usage during periods of fleet service.