THE POPULATION-DYNAMICS OF THE MANGROVE AVICENNIA-MARINA - DEMOGRAPHIC SYNTHESIS AND PREDICTIVE MODELING

Population dynamics of the widespread mangrove Avicennia marina was studied over the complete life-history from zygotes through to adults in southeastern Australia. Zygote survival, propagule dispersal, seedling establishment, seedling recruitment and sapling recruitment were examined by demographic censuses over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Hypotheses about factors regulating survival were tested by manipulative field experiments. Life table statistics for survival and fecundity were used to calculate transition probabilities and their variance for seven stages of life history. These parameters were used as the basis of a stochastic model that predicts population structure after small and large scale perturbations.